In order to understand who can be the main man at the next European Championship we have looked back few years. One of the first observations that we can make from the stats is that this tournament has always been a reputation maker for Golden Boot winners. In 1984 Michel Platini managed to win the Ballon d’Or but it was at the Eurioean Championship that the French public was able to see the best of him: he scored nine goals to take France to glory on home soil that year.
Four year later was the time of Marco Van Basten who was even on the bench in the opening game against USSR. He started and scored three goals against England and from that point on the rest is history. In 1996 Terry Venables strongly wanted Alan Shearer to play even tough the striker didn’t had much success with the national team colours until than. Shearer was the top scorer for the hosts with 5 goals. In 2000 Savo Milosevic and Patrick Kluivert finished at the top: even if they were both already established at club level they never had great time with their national teams until than.
Much of the same can be said for David Villa: with Valencia he was able to score a very high number of goals but he always underperformed when playing for Spain. At the Euro 2008 his international career really took off as he finished top scorer with four goals.
Usually, as you can expect, the Golden Booth is won by midfielders: the only exception was Platini and Henrik Larsen in 1992. Frank Lampard and Zinedine Zidane also did well but never managed to top up that important table. Is the home advantage very influent? It could have an impact but all depend from the strength of a team: there is enough evidence to suggest that there is no point focusing on Poland and Ukraine just because they play in front of their fans. If you want to win than start looking for teams that are likely to reach the semi-finals: four of the last eight winners (ignoring 1992) have played for the eventual winners. The only exception was Milosevic who played for quarter-finalists Yugoslavia.
So, made all those consideration what is the shortlist for Euro 2012 betting? Well, my strongest selection are
Germany, Holland, Portugal, Spain, England and France. If we translate those to the strikers than my shortlist would be: Mario Gomez 9.8, Robin van Persie 12.0, Cristiano Ronaldo 15.5, Karim Benzema 17.5, Fernando Torres 20.0 and Lukas Podolski32.0. I would omit Wayne Rooney because he will miss England’s first two games through suspension.
I would suggest to back Ronaldo as if Portugal will make it out alive from Group B than it will most probably get to the semi-final.
Best Bet: Cristiano Ronaldo @ 15.5