It is clear to everyone that Germany have been so far the best team in the tournament. They managed to beat 1-0 Portugal in their opening match, outplayed Holland and than got another three points in their less convincing match against Denmark. In the quarter finals they even fielded an under-strength squad but still managed to hammer Greece fpr 4-2.
Germany come into this match with a fantastic record: they are the only side who have won all four games so far in Poland and Ukraine and they are on a 15 gam winning run which is an all-time German record.
Italy, on the other hand, have exceeded most people expectations by qualify for the semi-finals. Looking at the two squads a draw is probably the best they can expect here. After all this has been the outcome of three of their last four games mostly due to their inability to score goals. Germany on the other hand have been scoring for fun in this tournament and are Euro 2012 top scorer team with 9 goals. Jogi Low’s team have several players that can find the net while Italy look much more limited in attack. Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli will have to raise their game massively if they want to give the Azzurri a chance to get to the final against Spain. This is unlikely to happen though I would ignore the 3/1 offered for this option and rather focus on Germany to win in 90 minutes or the draw at 2/1.
Looking at the Under / Over market we cannot notice that three of Germany’s four games have featured over 2.50 goals with an average goal per match of 3.25. Italy on the other hand have had under 2.50 goals in all four the games played with the average goal per game of only 1.50. The main difference with this game is that Italy may have to be forced to find the net if they concede early but this is very difficult to predict at this stage so I would rather leave this market alone as it’s really a marginal decision.
The Corner Match market price looks wrong. So far at the finals Italy have won 26 corners against 18 of Germany. Italy have won the corner match bet in three of their four games whilst Germany that have only won one time. It is therefore very surprising to see that Germany are 1.63 favourites to have more corner than Italy. The Azzurri are at 2/1 and this looks a reasonable bet.
In the Correct Score market the 1-1 is paid at 7.6 and the 2-1 for Germany is at 9/1. If Italy will concede early than they could really get hammered by Germany however if things will remained balanced than it is possible that we will have a draw or a marginal German’s win after 90 minutes.