If you are a QPR fan then it is better that you look away now. After Fulham and Swansea managed to win 5-0 in the opening day of the 2012/13 Premier league the relegation market has been immediately affected by that with some pretty sensible changes to odds. Usually it is not advisable to make decision based on a single match however in QPR case the market has really reacted considering that the humiliation came at home against one of the direct competitors to avoid the drop.
The reason why many considered the London club in a pretty safe situation was because they had Mark Hughes as a manager and the spending power of owner Tony Fernandes. The former man United player as a remarkable record of never finishing outside the top 10 in five full season as a Premier league manager however this looks to be his toughest task yet. Last season they finished just one place above the relegation zone and were able to survive by just one point. The manager did a decent job however he didn’t really improved the situation and mostly continued the run rate that the squad had with Neil Warnock.
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The history suggests that it will be very difficult for QPR to avoid relegation as it is always being traditionally complicated for promoted side in the second year with the majority of them who go backwards the next season. In addition to that in Premier League history the worst survivor from the previous season has been relegated nine times out of 20 (45%).
If you add on the above the heavy defeat that QPR suffered against Swansea you understand why many people are turning their back to them. Looking at the stats of the 31 teams beaten by five goals or more in front of their fans in a Premier league game, 17 (55%) have been relegated. You need to consider also that the majority of the teams in this stat did lose with such scorer line against elite teams who finished in the top six. Four of the six that suffered such a heavy loss against a lower placed side were relegated (67%). Those figures clearly indicates that QPR are a good value to be back for relegation at 4/1: even if Mark Hughes will be able to make the miracle again there should be trading opportunities along the way.
John Pentin
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Tags: Mark Hughes, neil warnock, premier league history, premier league manager, Premier League Relegation, QPR, soccer, sports, Swansea, tony fernandes